The Future of Energy (is much like the present)

Yesterday, Vaclav Smil, professor at University of Manitoba and prolific writer about energy, spoke at the Future of Energy Series here. His talk was titled "Transforming Energy Techniques," but he mainly discussed how energy techniques are not going to be changing anytime soon. He said it was a historical lecture, and those types of lectures are not given enough about energy, since in the media one usually just hears about new technologies all the time. (He also disliked using the word "technology"; "techniques" are what should be focused on). He was quite exciting and fun to watch. Here're notes:

• The three major "prime movers" on our planet today, the steam turbine, the car, and the electric motor, were all developed in the 1880s, and their basic technology has fundamentally not changed since then. We may have more efficient versions of them, but if the engineers who invented them saw them today, they'd be able to recognize the components. The only modern invention that's comparably important is the gas turbine from the 1930s.


• So, new technologies have not spread. Prime movers capture the market slowly, but stay there for a very long time.


• Same is true for sources of energy: oil only surpassed coal as the main source in the U.S. in 1964. In the 20th century the U.S. used as much coal as oil.


• Before coal, wood was the main source of energy, and for 1 billion people today it still is. The U.S. only switched from wood to coal in the 1880s, in China in the 1960s. Techniques become embedded in society and stay there.


• Once a technique is in place, infrastructure builds up around them. There's tons of investment already in refineries, mines, oil fields, gas lines, etc., that one can't just decide to switch to something else in 5 years, or even in 20 years. He mentioned huge circles of natural gas line pipes that run from Western Siberia, to France to Britain, through Spain back to the Mediterranean to Turkey and Bosnia. These lines would be useless if they didn't have something to pump through them. Change can happen, but it will happen on the order of generations.

• It takes a long time to get high performance. Two other historical examples: people only conquered famine in the 19th century; horses: a good harness only came around for them 1000 years ago, and only in the 19th century did people figure out how to feed them properly.


• Stats on world energy consumption: Subsaharan Africa uses ~5 gigajoules/year, India ~15, China 40, European countries 100-130, Japan 170, U.S. 340


• Energy in China: instead of competing with Japan, China wants to compete with the U.S. So instead of building bullet trains across the country, they put down 6-lane highways.
  
  In the 1980s, they experienced one of the largest housing booms in history. All the buildings though had concrete walls. Concrete is a terrible insulator of heat, and no one had fiberglass + wood, or triple windows.


• Asked if he thought there was any new technology that he thought could catch on, he emphasized that the major problem was scale. Wind turbines only produce 2-3 megawatts each, so the Chinese just plop down a 600 megawatt coal plant instead. The electric car hasn't passed that test, that of having millions of them run for a decade. The internal combustion engine has passed that test. Also he mentioned how if everyone started driving electric cars tomorrow, then we'd have huge drainage of the electrical networks at various intervals of the day as people recharged them, and where would that energy come from? So, he didn't really suggest any potential new energy source/technology.


• He mentioned that he optimized his house so it uses 1/12 of the energy of his neighbors, but this would not catch on in the developed world, because we are a culture of consumption. If we save money, we'll use it to take a plane to Las Vegas or buy a new car. 30% of the houses in the U.S. are custom built, and the average size of those houses are 5300 square feet. So we can't save energy through houses if we need 200 lights to light our homes. The U.S. has a "Texas mentality" and no one is going to opt for voluntary limits on consumption.

So overall, a kind of pessimistic but realistic view on energy. I guess those flying wind turbines won't be a viable solution yet.

Baseball in Japan

My favorite three words in springtime are always "pitchers and catchers." That's the signal for me to dig out of my hibernation hole and vicariously sniff at the fresh green grass down in Tampa. So it was with too much glee that I found CJ Nitkowski's website and blog yesterday. He's pitching in Japan this season, and his site is really well updated with lots of fun pictures. Like those of Japanese players obsessing over the Rubik's Cube. +1 nerds w00t!

The link was via the Bats blog at NYT. I don't have nearly enough time to check that regularly, but it's cool that the writers who hang out with the teams all the time can give extra insight through the blog. It also makes me miss sports radio back in NY.

Chinese and American Higher Education: Challenges

Last Friday, Professor William Kirby, former Dean of Harvard college, grandmaster of all things Asia, spoke about the challenges facing Chinese and U.S. universities in the 21st century. He was, as usual, very well spoken and brought up some interesting points. Here are notes: (yes this is belated; work never ceases)

• There has been a huge growth in higher ed. in China over the past 7 years, a revolutionary growth comparable to that which occurred at the beginning of the 20th century when the examination system was overthrown. After education was slowly rebuilt in the 80s after the cultural revolution, there was a steady increase in college enrollment (from ~800K in 1989 to ~3 million in 1999), but then a sharp increase over the past few years (to ~15 million in 2005, some estimates around 26 million right now), as for the first time China is commited to democratize higher education.


• More stats: 15% of young people are in school, this is projected to grow to 40% by 2020. China now produces more PHds annually than any other country in the world. The government spending on education is several times larger than that spent by European nations.


• Criticisms: as the number of students rise, the number of faculty has not been increasing proportionately; the quality of the faculty is feared to be poor.


• Brings up the question, what does it mean to be an educated person?


• Kirby was asked by Chinese university leaders about the Harvard education, the core curriculum. Though American universities are now regarded as the best in the world, they were not always so. 100 years ago the leading schools were German, and Harvard only became superior by copying the German models in the 19th century and by other international borrowing. So though Chinese schools are not regarded as leaders now, it may change (Beida University is already ranked #14 in the world by the Times Educational Supplement).


• Though Harvard is regarded as a model for education, it has had a history of changing models, of presidents who think everyone should take a set of foundation courses to those who didn't want any requirements.

What is the role of general education? This is an important question especially for those universities who are distinguished for their faculty research, not teaching.

• Should seek to cultivate values in students different from those of the professions they will inhabit, foundation values, awareness of public issues. Should not just train specialists, but promote a commitment to lifelong learning, so one can be truly independent of mind when one graduates.


• One has to recommit to the humanities at the core of education, and keep institutions open to ideas from many sources; important in this age of increasing specialization


• Have to figure out how to value teaching as well as research when most awards out there are concentrated in research (or consulting). Without students, the faculty wouldn't be there.


• How to promote opportunity, increases access, fairness in admissions. How to engage in self criticism; to review how, what, and why of what we're teaching. Each generation can craft their own idea of what a general education means. (Beida faculty were surprised when Kirby brought up the idea of their voting on curriculum changes.)

Why do we have higher education at all?

• Some reasons: to serve the state, society. To have better citizenry. To get a job (not a bad reason)


• American education is special: there is a stubborn commitment to liberal education.


• Need to promote general education because otherwise researchers and students will keep interacting on more narrow ground.


• Chinese modern experience has shown what life can be in the absense of humanities: before under the examination system, a humanities education was the only education that statesmen received. From 1905 to now, education has drifted away from humanities, to science and engineering, to promote state power and technology. The government has an enormous faith in the power of technology and applied sciences. (Technocracy was translated by Chinese to mean "dictatorship of the engineers") In 1949, 4% of students were majoring in humanities.


• Now, there is the beginning of a return to liberal education in China. Beida, Fudan, Peking Universities have introduced general education curriculums. They recognize that an education without the humanities is incomplete.


• John F. Kennedy speaking at Amherst: "When power leads men towards arrogance, poetry reminds him of his limitations. When power narrows the areas of man's concern, poetry reminds him of the richness and diversity of his existence. When power corrupts, poetry cleanses. For art establishes the basic human truth which must serve as the touchstone of our judgment."

Then during the Q&A:

• The rewards for pedagogy are much lower in China than in the U.S. Levels of financial aid are also much less, even at elite universities. There is no system of federal loans or other financing available.


• When Premier Wen Jiabao came to speak at Harvard, he wanted to speak at Sanders Theater, where Jiang Zemin had spoken previously. But at that time Michael Sandel was having his last Justice class, and refused to move even when Kirby asked. Another option would be Memorial Hall, but the last person from China who spoke there was the Dalai Lama, so that was out. Finally the Premier spoke at a place most fitting for a Chinese Premier in the 21st century, Burden hall at Harvard Business School. [transcript of the event]


• Though there are stories of corruption in the admissions process in college and high school levels, of students being admitted in exchange for "donations," there are not many stories about corruption of the examination system. If one does well, one will be admitted to a school of the expected level.

Overall, a fantastic talk.